Briefing for the debate on Supporting people with chronic conditions
Key points
The healthcare landscape in Wales is evolving due to demographic shifts and a growing prevalence of chronic conditions, with an estimated 17% of the UK population potentially having four or more chronic conditions by 2035.
According to Public Health Wales NHS Trust (PHW), between 2009/10 and 2021/22, the number of adults living with diabetes increased by 40%. PHW estimates a further 22% increase by 2035/36 and they have made similar predictions about several other non communicable diseases. The prevalence of several chronic conditions, including heart failure, stroke, and asthma, has grown over the past decade.
With the predicted demographic challenges and an increase in the number of people living with a chronic condition, it is imperative there is a fundamental shift in the health and social care system over the next decade. At its heart, this is about moving from a reactive model (treating people when they are unwell) to a proactive one (focusing on prevention and early intervention). This requires working across all sectors to support people to be active participants in their own health and wellbeing, creating resilient communities.
NHS leaders recommend the following areas are prioritised:
- Prevention: The Welsh Government should publish a cross-government national strategy to improve the health and wellbeing of the population and reduce inequalities.
- Workforce: Invest in a long-term plan for the NHS and social care workforce and their education to enable the implementation of multi-professional, digital enabled, motivated, engaged and valued workforce across the NHS and social care.
- Social Care: Support the sustainability of the social care system.
- Social Prescribing Framework: Implement and monitor the social prescribing framework to ensure it meets the specific needs of individuals living with chronic conditions.
- Mental Health: Mental health support should be routinely signposted at the point of diagnosis for all chronic conditions.

Priorities
Prevention
Primary prevention is identified as crucial for tackling the rising prevalence of chronic
conditions in Wales, aiming to stop these conditions from developing through measures like
increased screening and addressing risk factors. Addressing the wider determinants of
health, including diet, physical activity, and socioeconomic factors, is key, requiring a multi-sectoral approach. Primary prevention of long-term conditions is a shared responsibility that
extends beyond the NHS in Wales. Factors within society like education, housing, and
employment significantly influence both physical and mental health, thereby affecting the
likelihood of developing these conditions. While increased collaboration across government
is positive, more targeted action is needed across local authorities, the private and third
sector to tackle these broader societal factors that impact overall health and wellbeing.
Disadvantaged and minority ethnic groups face a higher burden of chronic conditions and
poorer health outcomes, necessitating culturally sensitive and accessible services. The
critical role of health literacy in empowering individuals to manage their health and wellbeing
is essential for early intervention and prevention as well as for the long-term sustainability of
the health and care system in Wales.
Workforce
Workforce pressures are affecting health and social care in Wales, including specialist
mental health services, domiciliary care, and social work. The Covid-19 pandemic has had
lasting effects on staff as they have reported significant fatigue and exhaustion in the
aftermath. These workforce challenges hinder the delivery of high-quality, integrated,
person-centred care for those with chronic conditions.
Multi-disciplinary teams are crucial for delivering comprehensive and effective patient care.
By bringing together professionals from diverse disciplines, the complex health and social
needs of individuals can be addressed. This collaborative model facilitates better
communication, shared decision-making, and coordinated care plans, ultimately leading to
improved patient outcomes, enhanced satisfaction, and more efficient use of resources
within the healthcare system.
Workforce planning based on projected population needs, particularly for an ageing
population and rural communities, is vital. To ensure the future sustainability of services, the
Welsh Government must invest in a long-term plan for the NHS and social care workforce.
The Welsh Government should continue to prioritise the investment in student education and
staff training across various professional groups, including alternative pathways like
apprenticeships and upskilling existing staff.
Social Care
The increasing number of people with long-term illnesses places substantial pressure on the
Welsh NHS, social services, and the third sector. Current health and care services are often
structured around single conditions, failing to adequately address the complexities of
multimorbidity. Furthermore, unpaid carers are essential in supporting individuals with
chronic conditions. Recognition and support for unpaid carers are vital and respite services
for carers are crucial.
Social care plays a vital role in managing and providing care to individuals with chronic
conditions. Social care offers essential support beyond medical treatment and facilitates a
more holistic and person-centred approach to care. By increasing integration between social
care with healthcare, it will improve patient outcomes, reduce hospital admissions, and
ensure a more sustainable and effective system for managing chronic conditions.
Social Prescribing Framework
Social prescribing connects people to community resources and support. While available in
all 22 local authorities in Wales, there is variation in capacity and waiting lists. The
effectiveness of social prescribing relies on the availability of community activities and
resources.
Moreover, social prescribing offers an asset-based approach, facilitating community
engagement for positive change by leveraging skills, knowledge, and lived experiences. It
represents a shift from traditional hospital and GP care to a non-medical, networked
approach that places the patient at the centre and promotes independence. It is therefore
crucial that the implementation of the social prescribing framework is carefully monitored to
ensure it effectively meets the specific needs of individuals living with chronic conditions.
Mental Health
Mental health problems can hinder self-management and engagement with healthcare,
worsening physical conditions. There is a strong link between chronic conditions and mental
health problems, with at least 30% of people with a chronic condition also experiencing
mental health issues. Also, adults with Severe Mental Illness (SMI) have a higher risk of
premature death from physical illnesses, and this mortality gap is widening. People with SMI
may develop chronic illnesses 20-30 years earlier, partly due to medication and lifestyle
factors.
The lack of parity between mental and physical health services has been a longstanding
issue, particularly impacting individuals living with chronic conditions. The profound
psychological effect of receiving a chronic illness diagnosis necessitates a much greater
integration of mental health support from the outset. However, signposting to mental health
services is not standard practice at the point of diagnosis for long-term physical conditions.
Furthermore, some individuals with chronic conditions may benefit from wellbeing support
that does not require formal mental health intervention; however, the limited number of social
prescribing link workers and the lack of available community facilities are significant barriers.
Greater integration of mental and physical health services is needed for those with chronic conditions. Mental health support should be routinely signposted at the point of diagnosis for
all chronic conditions.
Conclusion
The Welsh healthcare landscape faces significant challenges due to a rising prevalence of
chronic conditions, demanding a fundamental shift towards person-centred, coordinated care
in the community and closer to home.
The key priorities for a sustainable future include a multi-sectoral focus on prevention,
addressing health inequalities and promoting health literacy; a robust workforce plan for the
NHS and social care; a radical transformation of social care with prioritised funding to enable
person-centred, community-based care; effective implementation and monitoring of the
Social Prescribing Framework and the integration of mental health support into chronic
condition care pathways.
Further information
If you would like further information on any of the issues raised in the briefing, please contact
Haleema Khan on haleema.khan@welshconfed.org
The Welsh NHS Confederation is the only membership body representing all the
organisations making up the NHS in Wales: the seven local health boards, three NHS trusts
(Velindre University NHS Trust, Welsh Ambulance Services University NHS Trust and Public
Health Wales NHS Trust) and two special health authorities (Digital Health and Care Wales
and Health Education and Improvement Wales). We also host NHS Wales Employers and
are part of the NHS Confederation.