Securing the future: Funding health and social care to the 2030s

23 / 05 / 2018

The NHS Confederation commissioned the Institute for Fiscal Studies and the Health Foundation to undertake a study into the funding needs of the UK's health and care systems over the next 15 years.

Securing the future: funding health and social care to the 2030s is the first report from the study.

It concludes that cost pressures on the NHS are set to grow and that a long-term funding solution is needed, likely through tax increases.

Key findings include:

  • Just to maintain current service levels, UK health spending will need to increase by £95bn by 2033/34, rising from 7.3 per cent of national income this year to 8.9 per cent of national income – increases of 3.3 per cent a year.
  • But if the government wishes to improve NHS services, including meeting waiting times targets and addressing under-provision in mental health services, increases of approximately 4 per cent a year will be needed.
  • Some catch-up money will be needed over the next five years to maintain services and address the backlog of funding problems. This will require funding to grow by 5 per cent a year, before falling back to levels closer to the historic trend of 3.7 per cent.
  • Meeting these pressures will almost certainly require tax increases, as cuts in spending on other services are unsustainable following eight years of austerity.

The report’s editors, Anita Charlesworth and Paul Johnson, will explore the key themes of the study at an opening plenary session at Confed18, the NHS Confederation’s annual conference on 13 and 14 June.

Find out more about the report in this animation:

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